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Can Triangulation Save Obama?

By Sean Kerrigan
Sunday, November 7, 2010

If you thought that heads would start to cool off now that the midterms are over, your going to be in for quite a shock. In case you didn't realize, the presidential race for 2012 began about six months ago. Indeed, the arc of presidential campaign cycles starts earlier every term.

President Obama's strength going in to 2012 will depend largely on his ability to rebuke the Republican congress to satisfy his base of support, while still working with them enough to appear moderate and reasonable to independents. It's what Bill Clinton was able to do after his congressional losses in 1994 and ensured his comfortable reelection two years later.

Clinton adviser Dick Morris called it “triangulation.” Triangulation isn't simply moderating your tone to appeal to independent voters. It also involves taking some of your opponents ideas and adopting them as your own as a way of deflecting attacks.

Obama should be able to wield the rhetoric necessary to paint himself as a moderate against the Republican's “extreme” ideas, but as Obama has recently discovered, words mean nothing without actions to back them up. The decisions that need to be made don't leave much room for compromise.

On health care: Either have an individual mandate (with a tax to enforce it) or don't. There is no middle ground.

On Afghanistan: Either we are still in the war or we are not. Neither the right or the left will accept the spin that there are only “non-combat troops” left, like in Iraq where the war is still going on.

The same is true with carbon trading or additional stimulus spending. There isn't much room for give and take. If Obama decides to fight the Republicans, he'll look arrogant in the face of public opinion, which is probably going to remain on the Republican side for the next two years. If Obama instead decides to give up some ground to appear more moderate, he risks a serious primary challenge from the Democratic base.

Complicating matters further is the increasingly partisan Democratic base who foolishly believe that they would be in a better position if they just stuck to their principals and fought harder for progressive legislation. No need to watch the whole thing, but consider some of this lunacy:



This is the attitude of the Democratic base going in to the 2012 season. They really believe that America is ready to accept a true unapologetic progressive, warts and all. If the Republicans stick to their guns, the president is going to find himself up against two converging walls with a magnetically sealed door and one of those tentacle creatures slithering around. In other words, it's going to get real ugly.

Just consider the number of articles talking about a possible primary challenge for Obama. Pennsylvania Governor Ed Rendell, former MSNBC commentator Keith Olbermann, Talking Points Memo, The Huffington Post, and others all think a primary challenge could happen.

According to a recent Associated Press-Knowledge Networks poll, half of all Democrats think the President should receive a primary challenge. While the poll's accuracy is somewhat questionable with a 4.4 percent margin of error, the message is still clear: a credible challenger could arise. You could see someone like Dennis Kucinich, but even more dangerous for Obama would be a strong Democrat that could be seen as Obama's equal.

If you don't think it could happen, give the country another year or two of eight or nine percent unemployment and see what can happen.


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